The most portable idea in this panel is probability reasoning rather than a forecast: twenty risks each carrying roughly a five per cent chance price in individually as almost nothing, while the odds that one of them occurs are considerably better. That explains the disconnect between chaotic headlines and equities near record highs, because markets price risks separately and nothing forces aggregation. The economic argument makes the same point from the other direction — growth holding steady at 3.3 per cent is not resilience but offsetting forces, with AI investment, a wealth effect and fiscal spending cancelling policy drag. The panel's genuine split is about time horizon rather than facts, and their admission about repeatedly wrong rate forecasts deserves weight when the same apparatus estimates AI's contribution to output. Their closing risk is organisational rather than financial.